The economic impact of war is a harsh reality, and Russia is currently facing a stark reminder of this. The rising cost of food is a growing concern for many Russians, with prices surging and leaving a significant dent in their wallets.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's federal budget has been heavily influenced by the war effort and the defence industry. This has led to a unique situation where economic growth and living standards initially improved across the country. However, the consequences of this spending are now becoming apparent.
Inflation has been a silent but steady companion, creeping up on the Russian population, especially in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. The war's economic fallout, Western sanctions, and the departure of foreign investment were all masked by this big-spending approach.
But here's where it gets controversial: the rapid economic growth that Russia experienced couldn't be sustained indefinitely. In 2025, the growth slowed significantly, and the real impact of inflation became evident. Salaries couldn't keep up with the rising prices, and the effects started to hit home.
Data from Rosstat, Russia's statistics service, shows a sharp 2.3% increase in supermarket prices within a month at the start of 2026. This price surge affected a wide range of everyday items, from food staples like meat, milk, and flour to household essentials like soap and toothpaste.
While some, like Alexander from Moscow, claim they won't change their eating habits, others like Nadezhda, a 68-year-old retiree, have had to make significant adjustments. She can no longer afford beef and has turned to cheaper fish varieties. Nadezhda and her husband, both living on their state pensions and his additional income, now find that their entire monthly pension goes towards food expenses.
This has led to difficult choices. They had been saving to repair their car but had to dip into those savings for food instead. Even simple purchases like a new winter jacket for her husband, which would have cost around 17,000 roubles, have been put on hold until next year.
Kristina, a Moscow marketing specialist in her mid-40s, has also had to rely on her savings to buy food. She and her husband, a personal trainer, have had to change their approach to meals, focusing on the nutritional value and protein content of each item rather than personal preferences.
The impact of these rising prices is felt not just in the grocery store but also in everyday life. Kristina and her husband can no longer afford to dine out, and even cooking at home has become more expensive, with the cost of a dinner for two more than doubling.
Borrowing money is a challenging option due to high-interest rates, as lenders are hesitant to extend credit to a country at war and with a reputation for unreliability.
This situation could lead to further unpopular measures, such as tax increases, which would affect individuals and businesses, or budget cuts, primarily in the public sector, which would further slow down the economy and reduce household incomes.
Tatiana Mikhailova, an economist and visiting assistant professor at Penn State University, warns, "Overall, there is a trend towards stagnation and a possible decline in GDP." While the economy may not be in decline yet, the likelihood of a recession is high, especially with the potential for falling oil prices.
And this is the part most people miss: the ordinary Russians, who have little control over these economic forces, will bear the brunt of these consequences. The war's impact on their daily lives and finances is a stark reminder of the human cost of conflict.
