The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing surprisingly low playoff odds, but could they defy expectations and make a postseason run? It's a question many fans are pondering, especially after a couple of seasons where the team, despite high hopes, ultimately missed out on the playoffs. This year, the outlook seems even more tempered, with FanGraphs placing their playoff chances at a modest 31.6%. This figure might even feel a bit optimistic to some, considering the team's recent performance and the lingering effects of significant player injuries.
However, MLB.com's Jared Greenspan offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting that the D-backs are precisely the kind of team that could shock everyone and claw their way back into the postseason. So, how might they achieve this seemingly uphill battle?
The Pitching Predicament: A Major Hurdle
Greenspan identifies the pitching staff as the primary question mark for Arizona's playoff aspirations. The bullpen, in particular, is a cause for concern. Key relief pitchers, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk, are both slated to miss a substantial chunk of the upcoming season due to major elbow surgeries. Last season, the D-backs' bullpen posted the fourth-highest ERA in MLB at 4.82, and their projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) from relievers is ranked a dismal T-27th by FanGraphs.
But here's where it gets interesting...
The Offensive Powerhouse: A Potential Game-Changer
Fortunately for Diamondbacks fans, the team's offense has a history of compensating for pitching deficiencies. With a potent lineup featuring a superstar trio at the top, and timely hitting further down, Arizona has consistently ranked among the top five offenses in baseball for the past two seasons. This offensive might is a crucial factor in their potential to overcome the odds.
Greenspan highlights that Ketel Marte is set to remain with the team for the 2026 season, keeping a formidable top-of-the-order trio intact with Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. What's truly remarkable is that FanGraphs projects each of these three players to surpass the 4-WAR threshold in 2026. This places the D-backs in elite company, as they are one of only three teams (alongside the Dodgers and Mets) with at least three position players projected to achieve this significant WAR mark.
At the very least, this exceptional trio could be the driving force behind Arizona's return to the postseason, a feat they haven't accomplished since their NL pennant win in 2023. Furthermore, strong and healthy seasons from Gabriel Moreno (who had a 117 wRC+ in 83 games) and Pavin Smith (with a 123 wRC+ in 87 games) would undoubtedly provide a significant boost.
And this is the part most people miss...
Rotation Resilience and the Bullpen's Crucial Role
Looking at the starting rotation, Greenspan also points to the potential for a significant turnaround. The return of established pitchers like Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, coupled with the mid-season return of Corbin Burnes, could drastically improve the team's starting pitching.
However, the bullpen remains the ultimate x-factor. While the D-backs have shown they can build leads, their late-inning relief has, all too often, faltered at critical moments, surrendering those hard-earned advantages. This inconsistency in closing out games could be the deciding factor in whether they make the playoffs or not.
What do you think? Do you believe the Diamondbacks' potent offense and returning pitching depth can overcome their bullpen's struggles and defy their low playoff odds? Or are the pitching concerns too significant to overcome? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
